China's Major Export Commodity Structure Outlook 2024-2025: Steady Growth in Machinery & Electronics, Rise of New Energy
Over the next two years, China's exports of machinery & electronics will maintain steady growth, textiles & apparel will continue to decline, while new energy products (including EVs and solar) will expand rapidly, accelerating the shift toward higher value-added goods.
Overall Trend
Over the next 1-2 years, China's export commodity structure will continue to optimize, with machinery & electronics remaining the mainstay and new energy products emerging as a new growth pole.
Machinery & Electronics: Steady Growth
- Benefiting from global manufacturing recovery and supply chain resilience, exports of machinery & electronics are expected to grow from $1.35 trillion in 2023 to $1.45 trillion in 2025, with an average annual growth of about 3.5%.
- Key drivers: stable demand for automatic data processing equipment, integrated circuits, and auto parts.
Textiles & Apparel: Continued Decline
- Due to industry relocation and intensified competition, exports of textiles & apparel are expected to decrease from $280 billion in 2023 to $260 billion in 2025, with an average annual decline of about 3.7%.
- Enterprises need to transition toward branding and functional fabrics.
New Energy Products: Rapid Expansion
- Exports of new energy products such as EVs, solar modules, and lithium batteries are expected to surge from $150 billion in 2023 to $260 billion in 2025, with an average annual growth of about 31%.
- Drivers: global green transition, cost advantages of China's industrial chain.
Implications of Structural Change
This trend implies that Chinese enterprises should increase investment in the new energy sector while maintaining competitiveness in machinery & electronics through technological upgrades. For traditional industries like textiles, accelerating overseas capacity deployment or shifting to high-value-added products is essential.
Risk Notes
- Trade frictions and tariff barriers may slow the export growth of new energy products.
- A global economic slowdown could dampen demand for machinery & electronics.
- Supply chain volatility requires enterprises to diversify preparations.
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