Global Import Trade Growth Outlook 2025-2026: Moderate Recovery

Global Import Overview

According to forecasts from WTO, IMF and other institutions, global imports are expected to see a moderate recovery in 2025-2026 after stabilizing in 2024. Key drivers include easing inflation boosting consumer demand and gradual supply chain repair. However, trade frictions and geopolitical conflicts may drag growth. Global imports are estimated at about USD 25.0 trillion in 2024, rising to USD 25.8 trillion in 2025 and further to USD 26.7 trillion in 2026, with an average annual growth rate of 3%-4%.

Major Economy Performance

• United States: Supported by strong domestic demand, import demand remains stable, but tariff policy uncertainty increases, potentially disrupting trade flows.
• European Union: Lower energy prices favor import recovery, but manufacturing PMI remains below the boom-bust line, limiting the rebound.
• China: Consumer market recovers slowly, import growth is relatively resilient, but real estate downturn and weak external demand remain concerns.
• Emerging Markets: Commodity exporters benefit from price rebounds, enhancing import capacity; but debt pressures in some countries constrain growth.

Risks and Outlook

Key risks include escalation of geopolitical conflicts (e.g., Russia-Ukraine, Middle East), divergence in major central bank policies, and rising trade protectionism. If risks are contained, global imports may maintain steady growth; otherwise, growth could fall below 2%. Enterprises going global should pay attention to regional market divergences and flexibly adjust supply chain layouts.