China Export Outlook 2025-2026: Slowing Growth Amid Resilience
China's exports are expected to grow moderately at 3-4% annually in 2025-2026, pressured by weakening global demand and trade tensions, yet supported by emerging sectors like NEVs and photovoltaics.
Overall Trend
China's export value reached $3.5 trillion (estimate) in 2024, up about 4% year-on-year. Looking at 2025-2026, export growth is expected to slow to around 3%, driven by:
- Weak global demand: Slowing economic growth in Europe and the US, low consumer confidence, and reduced import demand.
- Persistent trade frictions: US tariff hikes and EU anti-subsidy investigations restrain traditional goods exports.
- Geopolitical risks: Red Sea shipping disruptions and Middle East tensions increase logistics costs.
Structural Highlights
Despite the overall slowdown, some sectors remain robust:
- New energy vehicles (NEVs): 2024 exports exceeded 2 million units, with 2025 growth expected over 25%, supported by overseas factories and rising brand recognition.
- Photovoltaics and lithium batteries: Global energy transition drives exports; PV module export value could grow 15% in 2025.
- Cross-border e-commerce: Platforms like SHEIN and Temu boost light industrial goods exports, maintaining growth around 20%.
Regional Divergence
- ASEAN: RCEP dividends continue; exports to ASEAN may grow 6-7% in 2025, becoming the largest trading partner.
- EU: Affected by CBAM and anti-subsidy investigations, export growth could slow to 1-2% in 2025.
- US: Following tariff hikes, some goods are rerouted via Vietnam and other third countries, with direct export growth near zero.
Forecast Risks
Upside risks include global rate cuts stimulating demand and deeper Belt & Road cooperation. Downside risks include a potential US 60% tariff hike (campaign promise) and global recession.
Overall, China's exports will remain positive in 2025-2026 but with a lower growth center and intensified structural divergence. Companies should accelerate overseas localization and increase the share of high-value-added products.
Related content
China's Trade Balance with Major Economies in 2023
In 2023, China's overall trade surplus narrowed, but surplus with ASEAN widened, while surplus with the US and EU declined, showing continued divergence across markets.
Top 10 China's Trade Balance with Major Trading Partners in 2023
In-depth Analysis of China's Trade Balance in 2025: Opportunities and Challenges under Surplus
China's trade surplus continues to widen, but faces geopolitical and structural demand shifts, requiring overseas enterprises to adapt strategies.