China-ASEAN Bilateral Trade Growth Trend 2018-2023
From 2018 to 2023, China-ASEAN bilateral trade volume increased from $587.8 billion to $911.7 billion, with an average annual growth of about 9.2%, as ASEAN remained China's largest trading partner for consecutive years.
Background
Since the establishment of dialogue relations in 1991, economic and trade cooperation between China and ASEAN has deepened. The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area was fully completed in 2010, and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) came into effect in 2022, further driving bilateral trade growth. ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner, while China has maintained its position as ASEAN's largest trading partner for 15 consecutive years.
Overview of Trade Data over the Past Six Years
According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, the bilateral trade volume between China and ASEAN from 2018 to 2023 is as follows (in USD 100 million):
- 2018: 5878
- 2019: 6415
- 2020: 6846
- 2021: 8782
- 2022: 9753
- 2023: 9117
Note: In 2023, due to slowing global demand and base effects, the trade volume slightly decreased but remained at a high level.
Growth Drivers
- RCEP Dividends: Tariff reductions and rules of origin cumulation simplified regional supply chains and promoted intermediate goods trade.
- Industrial Chain Complementarity: China and ASEAN have formed deep divisions of labor in electronics, machinery, textiles, etc., with China exporting parts to ASEAN, which then assembles and exports globally.
- Infrastructure Connectivity: Projects like the China-Laos Railway and Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway improved logistics efficiency.
- Rise of Cross-border E-commerce: Platforms like Lazada and Shopee lowered trade barriers, increasing SME participation.
Future Outlook
China-ASEAN trade is expected to continue growing in new areas such as digital economy and green economy. Bilateral trade is likely to return to the trillion-dollar scale in 2024. However, geopolitical risks and global economic uncertainties need to be monitored.
Data source: General Administration of Customs of China; this analysis is based on public statistics and reasonable industry estimates.
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