US Average Tariff Rate on Chinese Imports Rises Over 6 Years, New Challenges for Chinese Enterprises Going Global

Trend Overview

Over the past six years (2018-2023), the US average tariff rate on Chinese imports has surged dramatically. According to industry estimates, before the tariff hikes in early 2018, the average rate was about 3.1%; after the fourth round of tariffs in 2019, it jumped to approximately 12.5%; following the phase one trade agreement in 2020, the rate remained high with minor adjustments, reaching about 19.5% in 2021, 19.8% in 2022, and further rising to around 20.1% in 2023.

Key Milestones

• 2018: The US imposed a 25% tariff on about $250 billion worth of Chinese goods under Section 301, raising the average rate from 3.1% to approximately 10%.
• 2019: The fourth round of tariffs covered nearly all remaining Chinese imports, pushing the average rate to about 12.5%.
• 2020: After the phase one agreement, some tariffs were slightly reduced, but the average rate remained around 19.3%.
• 2021-2023: Tariff policies largely continued, with the average rate fluctuating narrowly around 20%.

Impact on Chinese Enterprises Going Global

• Cost Pressure: High tariffs directly increase export costs and compress profit margins.
• Supply Chain Adjustment: Some enterprises accelerated capacity relocation to Southeast Asia to avoid tariffs.
• Market Diversification: Firms actively explore markets such as the EU and ASEAN to reduce reliance on the US.
• Compliance Risks: Requirements such as rules of origin and anti-circumvention investigations have increased.

Outlook and Responses

A full removal of US tariffs on Chinese goods is unlikely in the short term. Chinese enterprises should respond by enhancing product value, optimizing supply chain layouts, and ensuring compliance. Additionally, they should leverage tariff preferences from regional agreements like RCEP.