Global Tariff Landscape 2025-2026: Challenges and Opportunities for Chinese Enterprises Going Global

Overview of Current Tariff Environment

As of 2024, US-China trade tariffs remain at historic highs, with the US average tariff rate on China around 19%. The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has entered its transitional phase, with full implementation of carbon tariffs scheduled for 2026. Additionally, emerging markets like India and Brazil are adjusting their tariff policies to protect domestic industries.

Outlook for US Tariffs on China

• 2025: The US presidential election outcome may influence tariff direction. If current policies continue, overall tariffs on China remain stable, though specific sectors (e.g., EVs, semiconductors) could see further increases. Average rate expected to rise to 20.5%.
• 2026: After a new administration takes office, tariff policy remains uncertain. Two scenarios: one continues the hardline approach with average rates reaching 22%; the other sees negotiation easing, bringing rates down to 18%.

Progress of EU Carbon Tariff (CBAM)

• 2025: Transition period requires importers to report carbon emissions data without paying fees. Companies need to establish carbon accounting systems; estimated carbon price around EUR 65/ton.
• 2026: Carbon tariffs officially imposed on sectors like steel, aluminum, cement. Carbon price expected to rise to EUR 80/ton, increasing export costs for China's high-carbon products.

Other Key Market Dynamics

• Southeast Asia: Countries like Thailand and Vietnam maintain low tariff environments to attract foreign investment, but anti-dumping investigations against certain Chinese goods have increased.
• India: Raising tariffs on electronics and machinery to encourage local manufacturing; further increases possible in 2025.
• Latin America: Brazil offers tariff incentives for new energy products but requires a certain local content ratio.

Response Strategies for Chinese Enterprises

1. Supply Chain Diversification: Establish production bases in Southeast Asia or Eastern Europe to mitigate single-market tariff risk.
2. Compliance and Carbon Management: Deploy carbon footprint tracking systems early to meet EU CBAM requirements.
3. Product Upgrading: Increase added value and technological content to reduce tariff sensitivity.
4. Policy Monitoring: Set up professional teams to track tariff dynamics globally and adjust export strategies in time.

The above forecasts are based on current policy trends and industry estimates; actual changes need to follow legislative developments in each country.