Growth Trend of China's Sea and Air Freight Exports (2018-2023)

Overall Trend

Over the past six years (2018-2023), the scale of China's export sea and air freight has experienced significant changes. Using 2018 as a baseline of 100, the index grew by about 40% by 2023, with an average compound annual growth rate of approximately 7%.

Key Milestones

• 2018-2019: Steady growth with limited impact from the early US-China trade friction; the freight index rose from 100 to 105.
• 2020: The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted global supply chains, causing the index to drop to 95, a 9.5% year-on-year decrease.
• 2021: A revenge rebound in demand, coupled with soaring ocean freight rates, pushed the index to 120, a 26% increase.
• 2022: Growth slowed but remained positive, reaching 130, up 8% year-on-year.
• 2023: Uneven global economic recovery led to moderate growth to 140, an increase of 7.7%.

Influencing Factors

• Trade Environment: Policies such as US-China relations and EU carbon tariffs affect logistics routes and costs.
• Oil Price Volatility: Fuel costs account for 30-40% of transportation costs; rising oil prices drive up freight rates.
• Port Congestion: From 2020 to 2022, congestion at US West Coast ports persisted, making air freight a substitute option.
• E-commerce Growth: Cross-border e-commerce grew at over 20% annually, boosting demand for small parcel air freight.

Outlook

Future growth may slow to 5-7%, but the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Belt and Road Initiative will support China's export logistics volume.