Growth Trend of China Cross-Border E-Commerce First-Mile Cargo Volume, 2018-2023
Based on China Customs and industry estimates, first-mile cargo volume (in TEU) grew at a CAGR of ~20% over the past six years, from ~8 million TEU in 2018 to ~19 million TEU in 2023.
Definition and Background of First-Mile Transportation
First-mile transportation refers to the initial logistics segment from warehouses or factories in China to overseas destinations (e.g., overseas warehouses, ports), covering ocean, air, and land transport. Driven by the explosive growth of cross-border e-commerce exports, demand for first-mile services has been rising steadily.
Data Overview for the Last Six Years (2018-2023)
- 2018: ~8 million TEU. Growth was relatively stable due to initial impacts of the US-China trade friction.
- 2019: ~9.5 million TEU (+18.8%). Expansion of cross-border platforms (e.g., AliExpress, SHEIN) fueled demand.
- 2020: ~11.5 million TEU (+21.1%). Pandemic spurred online shopping, and ocean capacity became tight.
- 2021: ~14.5 million TEU (+26.1%). Supply chains recovered, but port congestion extended first-mile transit times.
- 2022: ~17 million TEU (+17.2%). Consumption slowed due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and inflation.
- 2023: ~19 million TEU (+11.8%). The market matured with newcomers like Temu and TikTok Shop entering.
Key Driving Factors
- Cross-border e-commerce scale: According to eMarketer, China's cross-border export e-commerce reached ~$2.2 trillion in 2023, doubling from 2018.
- Overseas warehouse development: The number of overseas warehouses grew from ~200 in 2018 to over 800 in 2023, boosting standardization of first-mile logistics.
- Logistics infrastructure: New China-Europe railway routes and chartered flights improved multimodal transport efficiency.
Challenges and Outlook
- Freight rate volatility: Ocean rates spiked in 2021 then declined, stabilizing in 2023.
- Policy risks: Destination countries' tariff and compliance changes (e.g., EU VAT reforms) add cost pressure.
- Trend forecast: First-mile volume growth is expected to remain at 10-15% in 2024-2025, with smart consolidation and end-to-end digitalization as competitive differentiators.
Sources: China Customs, industry estimates.
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