Annual Comparison of China Cross-Border E-Commerce First-Mile Logistics Market Size (2020-2024)

Market Overview

First-mile logistics, as the starting point of the cross-border e-commerce export chain, covers transportation and customs declaration from Chinese sellers' warehouses to domestic consolidation warehouses or airports/ports of cross-border logistics service providers. Benefiting from the increase in global e-commerce penetration and the growing demand for Chinese manufacturing going overseas, the market size of China's cross-border e-commerce first-mile logistics continued to expand from 2020 to 2024.

Annual Data (Unit: 100 Million RMB)

• 2020: Approximately 200 billion RMB. Driven by a surge in global online consumption in the early stages of the pandemic, cross-border e-commerce exports exploded, and the demand for first-mile logistics increased simultaneously.
• 2021: Approximately 280 billion RMB. While events like the Amazon account suspension wave impacted some sellers, the overall market still maintained a 40% growth rate, with the rise of new platforms (such as Shopee and Temu) supplementing demand.
• 2022: Approximately 350 billion RMB. The growth rate slowed to 25%, but the popularization of overseas warehouse stocking models drove growth in bulk first-mile transportation.
• 2023: Approximately 420 billion RMB. The rise of fully managed models (Temu, SHEIN, etc.) led to structural adjustments in first-mile logistics due to high-frequency, small-batch characteristics, yet the market still grew by 20%.
• 2024: Estimated at approximately 500 billion RMB, with a growth rate of about 19%. Platforms like TikTok Shop and Temu continued to expand, coupled with the recovery of air freight capacity and falling sea freight rates, cost optimization in first-mile logistics boosted volume.

Trend Analysis

• Growth Drivers: Cross-border e-commerce export scale rose from approximately 1.1 trillion RMB in 2020 to an estimated 2.5 trillion RMB in 2024, with first-mile logistics accounting for about 20-25%.
• Structural Changes: The proportion of small parcel direct mail declined, while the share of sea/air LCL and overseas warehouse first-mile increased, reflecting the maturation of logistics models.
• Cost Challenges: High freight rates in 2021-2022 pushed up first-mile costs; with rates falling in 2023-2024, the first-mile logistics expense ratio dropped from 15% to about 12%.

Outlook

It is estimated that the market size will exceed 600 billion RMB in 2025, but geopolitical and tariff policy changes may bring uncertainty.