China's Outbound Direct Investment Flow Trend: 2018-2023

Overall Trend

From 2018 to 2023, China's outbound direct investment (ODI) flow experienced fluctuating growth, maintaining a relatively high level overall. According to the Ministry of Commerce and industry estimates, the total accumulated ODI flow over these six years exceeded $920 billion, with an annual average of approximately $154 billion.

Yearly Changes

• 2018: $143 billion, with growth slowing due to global trade frictions.
• 2019: $136.9 billion, a slight decline but still at a historical high.
• 2020: $153.7 billion, accelerating overseas expansion amid the pandemic, showing counter-cyclical growth.
• 2021: $178.8 billion, reaching a six-year peak, driven by economic recovery and active M&A.
• 2022: $146.5 billion, a notable decline due to geopolitical tensions and global rate hikes.
• 2023: $165 billion, stabilizing and rebounding, led by investments in new energy and technology.

Driving Factors

• Industrial Upgrade: Shift from traditional resource acquisition to high-end manufacturing and digital economy.
• Policy Support: RCEP came into effect and the deepening of the Belt and Road Initiative provided institutional convenience.
• Market Diversification: Increased share of Southeast Asia, Middle East, and Latin America reduced single-market risk.

Outlook

ODI flow is expected to stay in the range of $150-170 billion in 2024-2025, with structural opportunities increasing due to global supply chain restructuring and green transition.