Growth Trend of China's Solar PV Module Exports (2018-2023)

Background

China is the world's largest producer and exporter of solar PV modules. In recent years, with the acceleration of global energy transition, the demand for PV has remained strong. This analysis focuses on the growth trend of China's PV module exports from 2018 to 2023, based on publicly available data from Chinese Customs and industry organizations.

Key Data and Trends

• 2018: Exports of about 41GW; the domestic "531 New Policy" reduced local demand, prompting enterprises to accelerate overseas expansion.
• 2019: Exports of about 63GW, a year-on-year increase of about 54%, driven by demand from Europe and India.
• 2020: Exports of about 78GW; despite the COVID-19 pandemic, overseas PV project demand remained resilient.
• 2021: Exports of about 98GW, up 26% YoY; increased price competition but volume continued to rise.
• 2022: Exports of about 154GW, up 57% YoY; the Russia-Ukraine conflict triggered a European energy crisis, boosting demand.
• 2023: Exports of about 205GW, up 33% YoY; diversified markets in Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the Middle East drove growth.

Growth Drivers

• Policy support: Many countries have raised renewable energy targets, e.g., the EU's "RepowerEU" plan.
• Cost advantage: Chinese module manufacturing costs have continued to decline, and technological advances (e.g., PERC, TOPCon) have enhanced competitiveness.
• Market diversification: Export shares to Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and the Middle East have increased, reducing dependence on single markets.

Challenges and Risks

• Trade barriers: Anti-dumping actions and carbon border adjustment mechanisms may raise export costs.
• Overcapacity: Domestic capacity expansion has been rapid, posing risks of supply glut and margin compression.
• Geopolitical factors: Some markets require localized supply chains, prompting Chinese companies to build overseas factories.

Outlook

Export growth is expected to slow to 10-20% in 2024, but absolute volume may still exceed 230GW. Technological upgrades and overseas capacity deployment will be key.